Where can BJP win in Kerala?

…. opens up the possibility of a tectonic realignment of alliance politics in Kerala with Muslim League switching to the Left in Malabar, and a possible vertical split in Congress party with…

Winners and losers: Kerala elections

Interestingly the party that has contested most number of seats in Kerala in last seven elections has not won even a single seat. That distinction goes to Bharatiya Janata Party which has contested a whopping 850 seats in past 35 years and lost every single one of them.

Wayanad Assembly Elections

Indian National Congress has won two thirds of all elections in Wayanad since 1982, but in recent times all three assembly constituencies in the district are in play with LDF winning Mananthavady, Sulthanbathery and Kalpetta in 2006. Median margin in Mananthavady and Kalpetta are above 10% which is above average and shows clear waves and swings.

Thrissur Assembly Elections

Thrissur is home to Ollur, the only true bellwether of Kerala elections. A swing district, Thrissur has 5 LDF leaning constituencies including left bastion of Kaipamangalam and one UDF fort manned by Therambil Ramakrishnan. With 7 swing constituencies, Thrissur decides how central Kerala swings. A notable constituency is Kunnamkulam characterised by wafer thin margins.

Thiruvananthapuram Assembly Elections

Thiruvananthapuram is a classic bellwether district with LDF and UDF virtually splitting the 98 elections since 1982 in half. Bharatiya Janata Party’s biggest bet in 2016, Trivandrum has 4 UDF leaning seats and 3 that lean LDF, including two left bastions of Attingal and Chirayinkeezhu. Half the constituencies have a habit of swinging either way and hence the district more often than not reflects the mood of the state’s electorate.

Pathanamthitta Assembly Elections

Pathanamthitta leans right and traditionally favors UDF. Though Raju Abraham and Mathew T. Thomas buck the trend in Ranni and Thiruvalla, UDF and Kerala Congress politics holds sway in the district. Aranmula is BJP’s only interest in the district.

Palakkad Assembly Elections

Palakkad is CPM’s district and it’s deep ties with working class delivers near two thirds of the seat in the left’s account . Constituencies in Palakkad are Alathur, Chittur, Kongad, Malampuzha, Mannarkkad, Nenmara, Ottappalam, Palakkad, Pattambi, Shornur, Tarur and Thrithala.

Malappuram Assembly Elections

Malappuram belongs to Indian Union Muslim League. There would be very few places in the country where elections are so one sided. It isn’t the fact that 14 of 16 constituencies swing UDF, but the median margin of victory and the unsurmountable lead Muslim league has in some of these places which is impressive.

Kozhikode Assembly Elections

Kozhikode is another LDF leaning district in Malabar. The last three decades of election results in the district is representative of Congress party’s increasing irrelevance north of Thrissur.

Kottayam Assembly Elections

Do not misunderstand the swing status of Kottayam, Kottayam swings right. This district is holy ground of Kerala Congress politics, with Mani and Joseph wings of Kerala Congress winning more than half the seats in every election since 1982.

Kollam Assembly Elections

Kollam an erstwhile RSP and CPI bastion, leans left, and in 2016 LDF might just decimate UDF again. May 2016 also could be the end of Revolutionary Socialists as we know them, though Shibu Baby John may romp home in Chavara.

Kasaragod Assembly Elections

Kasaragod leans LDF. BJP has a significant vote share in the district, it’s highest in the state, but this vote share has declined since 1982. Manjeshwaram still remains party’s best bet to open an account in 2016. Then that was the case in 1982, and every election since. Then BJP has struggled to go beyond the 20% mark.

Kannur Assembly Elections

Kannur is Communist Party Marxist’s citadel. A red fort with 8 of 11 constituencies not just leaning left, but near impossible to win for other parties. While subject to shockers like Azhikode in 2011, when CPM blew a 29 point lead, the district will side with the left. K.C.Joseph’s Irikkur and Kannur constituencies though buck the trend and side with UDF.

Idukki Assembly Elections

Is a swing district, but LDF and UDF may keep the 3-2 split intact if P.J.Joseph contests from Thodupuzha for UDF. Roshy Augustine in Idukki and Joseph in Thodupuzha have deep moats to keep LDF at bay and the split in Kerala Congress shouldn’t affect fortunes in Idukki.

Eranakulam Assembly Elections

Eranakulam is one of Indian National Congress’s last remaining advantages in the state, with strong moats in Thrikkakara, Kochi, Eranakulam and Thrippunithura. The district swings UDF and is critical for UDF to retain power in the state. The district swings right with 6 constituencies leaning UDF and 1 leaning left. 7 are up for grabs. In 2011, UDF won the district 11-3.

Alappuzha assembly elections

Alappuzha is a classic swing district. Some of the top leaders of CPM and Congress come from the district, and the two parties are neck and neck every election since 1982. With 2 constituencies leaning LDF, and with Thomas Issac, CPM winning back heavily Congress leaning Alappuzha constituency, and JSS votes shifting to LDF, it is highly plausible the district may lean left this time around.

Bellwether of Kerala Elections

Ever wondered which constituencies reflect the mood of the state. Ollur in Thrissur has predicted every election since 1982, sending MLAs to Trivandrum who were always part of the ruling alliance. Only constituency…

WANDOOR

Wandoor is a strong UDF constituency. In 2011,A. P. Anilkumar of Indian National Congress defeated V. Ramesan of Communist Party Of India- Marxist by a margin of 28919 votes.

VYPEEN

Vypeen is a swing constituency. In 2011,S. Sarma of Communist Party Of India- Marxist defeated Ajay Tharayil of Indian National Congress by a margin of 5242 votes.

VENGARA

Vengara is a UDF bastion. In 2011,P. K. Kunjalikutty of Indian Union Muslim League defeated K. P. Ismayil of Indian National League by a margin of 38237 votes.

VATTIYOORKAVU

Vattiyoorkavu is a slightly UDF leaning constituency. In 2011,K. Muraleedharan of Indian National Congress defeated Cherian Philip of Left Democratic Front by a margin of 16167 votes.

VARKALA

Varkala is a swing constituency. In 2011,Varkala Kahar of Indian National Congress defeated A. A. Rahim of Communist Party Of India- Marxist by a margin of 10710 votes.

VAMANAPURAM

Vamanapuram is a slightly left leaning constituency. In 2011,Koliyakode Krishnan Nair of Communist Party Of India- Marxist defeated C. Mohanachandran of Indian National Congress by a margin of 2236 votes.

VALLIKUNNU

Vallikunnu is a UDF bastion. In 2011,K. N. A. Khader of Indian Union Muslim League defeated K. V. Sankaranarayanan of Left Democratic Front by a margin of 18122 votes.