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So far analyst payyan has created 158 blog entries.

Where can BJP win in Kerala?

By | April 16th, 2016|Categories: insights|

.... opens up the possibility of a tectonic realignment of alliance politics in Kerala with Muslim League switching to the Left in Malabar, and a possible vertical split in Congress party with a chunk of the "I" faction joining NDA. There was a time when nair vote in the state used to follow "I" faction

Winners and losers: Kerala elections

By | April 3rd, 2016|Categories: insights, interesting|Tags: , , , , , , , |

Interestingly the party that has contested most number of seats in Kerala in last seven elections has not won even a single seat. That distinction goes to Bharatiya Janata Party which has contested a whopping 850 seats in past 35 years and lost every single one of them.

Wayanad Assembly Elections

By | March 21st, 2016|Categories: district, malabar|Tags: |

Indian National Congress has won two thirds of all elections in Wayanad since 1982, but in recent times all three assembly constituencies in the district are in play with LDF winning Mananthavady, Sulthanbathery and Kalpetta in 2006. Median margin in Mananthavady and Kalpetta are above 10% which is above average and shows clear waves and swings.

Thrissur Assembly Elections

By | March 21st, 2016|Categories: district, kochi|

Thrissur is home to Ollur, the only true bellwether of Kerala elections. A swing district, Thrissur has 5 LDF leaning constituencies including left bastion of Kaipamangalam and one UDF fort manned by Therambil Ramakrishnan. With 7 swing constituencies, Thrissur decides how central Kerala swings. A notable constituency is Kunnamkulam characterised by wafer thin margins.

Thiruvananthapuram Assembly Elections

By | March 21st, 2016|Categories: district, travancore|

Thiruvananthapuram is a classic bellwether district with LDF and UDF virtually splitting the 98 elections since 1982 in half. Bharatiya Janata Party’s biggest bet in 2016, Trivandrum has 4 UDF leaning seats and 3 that lean LDF, including two left bastions of Attingal and Chirayinkeezhu. Half the constituencies have a habit of swinging either way and hence the district more often than not reflects the mood of the state’s electorate.

Pathanamthitta Assembly Elections

By | March 21st, 2016|Categories: district, travancore|

Pathanamthitta leans right and traditionally favors UDF. Though Raju Abraham and Mathew T. Thomas buck the trend in Ranni and Thiruvalla, UDF and Kerala Congress politics holds sway in the district. Aranmula is BJP’s only interest in the district.

Palakkad Assembly Elections

By | March 21st, 2016|Categories: district, malabar, palakkad|

Palakkad is CPM's district and it's deep ties with working class delivers near two thirds of the seat in the left's account . Constituencies in Palakkad are Alathur, Chittur, Kongad, Malampuzha, Mannarkkad, Nenmara, Ottappalam, Palakkad, Pattambi, Shornur, Tarur and Thrithala.

Malappuram Assembly Elections

By | March 21st, 2016|Categories: district, malabar, malappuram|

Malappuram belongs to Indian Union Muslim League. There would be very few places in the country where elections are so one sided. It isn’t the fact that 14 of 16 constituencies swing UDF, but the median margin of victory and the unsurmountable lead Muslim league has in some of these places which is impressive.

Kozhikode Assembly Elections

By | March 21st, 2016|Categories: district, malabar|

Kozhikode is another LDF leaning district in Malabar. The last three decades of election results in the district is representative of Congress party’s increasing irrelevance north of Thrissur.

Kottayam Assembly Elections

By | March 21st, 2016|Categories: district, travancore|Tags: , , , , , |

Do not misunderstand the swing status of Kottayam, Kottayam swings right. This district is holy ground of Kerala Congress politics, with Mani and Joseph wings of Kerala Congress winning more than half the seats in every election since 1982.

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