Wayanad Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Indian National Congress has won two thirds of all elections in Wayanad since 1982, but in recent times all three assembly constituencies in the district are in play with LDF winning Mananthavady, Sulthanbathery and Kalpetta in 2006. Median margin in Mananthavady and Kalpetta are above 10% which is above average and shows clear waves and swings.

 

Constituencies and Swing in Wayanad:

Constituencies are  Kalpetta, Mananthavady and Sulthanbathery.

Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Mananthavady SWING 10.3
Sulthanbathery SWING 4.8
Kalpetta UDF 14.4

 

Indian National Congress has won 14 of 21 seats since 1982, with socialists winning 4 and Communist Party Marxist a winning 3.

Parties of influence in Wayanad:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
INC 14 2
CPM 3 0
JAN 1 0
JANG 1 0
JDS 1 0
SJD 1 1
TOTAL 21 3

 

Thrissur Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Thrissur is home to Ollur, the only true bellwether of Kerala elections. A swing district, Thrissur has 5 LDF leaning constituencies including left bastion of Kaipamangalam and one UDF fort manned by Therambil Ramakrishnan. With 7 swing constituencies, Thrissur decides how central Kerala swings. A notable constituency is Kunnamkulam characterised by wafer thin margins.

 

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Chelakkara LDF 4.5
Kunnamkulam LDF 1.8
Guruvayur LDF 9.1
Manalur SWING 5.9
Vadakkancherry SWING 7.7
Ollur SWING 4.7
Thrissur UDF 7.0
Nattika SWING 9.6
Kaipamangalam LDF 10.2
Irinjalakuda SWING 9.0
Puthukkad LDF 3.9
Chalakkudy SWING 7.2
Kodungallur SWING 6.9

 

Parties of influence in Thrissur:

 

Party power in the district is evenly split between Indian National Congress and the Communist Parties. Constituencies in Thrissur are Chalakkudy, Chelakkara, Guruvayur, Irinjalakuda, Kaipamangalam, Kodungallur, Kunnamkulam, Manalur, Nattika, Ollur, Puthukkad, Thrissur and Vadakkancherry

Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
INC 38 5
CPM 22 5
CPI 21 2
IUML 4 0
KCM 3 1
JAN 2 0
INCA 2 0
LDF 2 0
CS 1 0
JSS 1 0
NDP 1 0
TOTAL 97 13

 

Thiruvananthapuram Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Thiruvananthapuram is a classic bellwether district with LDF and UDF virtually splitting the 98 elections since 1982 in half. Bharatiya Janata Party’s biggest bet in 2016, Trivandrum has 4 UDF leaning seats and 3 that lean LDF, including two left bastions of Attingal and Chirayinkeezhu. Half the constituencies have a habit of swinging either way and hence the district more often than not reflects the mood of the state’s electorate.

 

Constituencies and Swing:

 

Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Varkala SWING 4.0
Attingal LDF 8.9
Chirayinkeezhu LDF 11.0
Nedumangad SWING 3.7
Vamanapuram LDF 2.7
Kazhakoottam UDF 2.0
Vattiyoorkavu UDF 12.1
Thiruvananthapuram SWING 8.8
Nemom SWING 5.5
Aruvikkara UDF 5.3
Parassala SWING 4.9
Kattakkada UDF 7.7
Kovalam SWING 5.8
Neyyattinkara SWING 6.0

 

Parties of influence Trivandrum:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
INC 37 8
CPM 30 4
CPI 11 1
JAN 2 0
CMP 2 0
CS 2 0
INCA 2 0
IND 2 0
JDS 2 1
KCJ 2 0
RSP 2 0
DSP 1 0
IUML 1 0
JD 1 0
LD 1 0
TOTAL 98 14

Constituencies in Thiruvananthapuram are Aruvikkara, Attingal, Chirayinkeezhu, Kattakkada, Kazhakoottam, Kovalam, Nedumangad, Nemom, Neyyattinkara, Parassala and Thiruvananthapuram.

Pathanamthitta Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Pathanamthitta leans right and traditionally favors UDF. Though Raju Abraham and Mathew T. Thomas buck the trend in Ranni and Thiruvalla, UDF and Kerala Congress politics holds sway in the district. Aranmula is BJP’s only interest in the district.

 

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Thiruvalla LDF 8.5
Ranni LDF 5.1
Aranmula UDF 6.6
Konni UDF 2.7
Adoor UDF 6.6

 

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
INC 17 2
CPM 13 1
KCM 5 0
KCJ 3 0
UDF 3 0
CS 2 0
JDS 2 1
JSS 2 0
JAN 1 0
CPI 1 1
JANG 1 0
KCB 1 0
NDP 1 0
NDPP 1 0
TOTAL 53 5

Constituencies in Pathanamthitta are Adoor, Aranmula, Konni, Ranni and Thiruvalla.

Palakkad Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Palakkad is an LDF bastion. Left parties have won more than two thirds of the assembly elections in Palakkad since 1982, with Communist Party Marxist alone winning more than half the elections.

A CPM stronghold, Palakkad elections has 7 LDF leaning constituencies including impenetrable red forts of Alathur, Malampuzha, Ottapalam, Shornur and Tarur. In the one UDF leaning constituency, C.Achuthan holds fort for Congress.

 

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Thrithala SWING 3.6
Pattambi SWING 4.0
Shornur LDF 11.2
Ottappalam LDF 8.2
Kongad LDF 3.1
Mannarkkad SWING 5.1
Malampuzha LDF 17.2
Palakkad SWING 4.8
Tarur LDF 11.1
Chittur UDF 7.8
Nenmara LDF 4.5
Alathur LDF 12.1

 

Parties of influence:

Palakkad is CPM’s district and it’s deep ties with working class delivers near two thirds of the seat in the left’s account . Constituencies in Palakkad are Alathur, Chittur, Kongad, Malampuzha, Mannarkkad, Nenmara, Ottappalam, Palakkad, Pattambi, Shornur, Tarur and Thrithala.

Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
CPM 39 7
INC 21 4
CPI 6 0
IUML 4 1
CS 3 0
JAN 1 0
JD 1 0
NCP 1 0
PSP 1 0
UDF 1 0
TOTAL 78 12