Malappuram Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Malappuram belongs to Indian Union Muslim League. There would be very few places in the country where elections are so one sided. It isn’t the fact that 14 of 16 constituencies swing UDF, but the median margin of victory and the unsurmountable lead Muslim league has in some of these places which is impressive.

 

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Kondotty UDF 23.5
Eranad UDF 9.8
Nilambur UDF 6.3
Wandoor UDF 10.9
Manjeri UDF 27.5
Perinthalmanna UDF 6.9
Mankada UDF 6.0
Malappuram UDF 36.4
Vengara UDF 38.4
Vallikunnu UDF 16.0
Tirurangadi UDF 22.3
Tanur UDF 29.3
Tirur UDF 9.8
Kottakkal UDF 31.4
Tavanur LDF 5.6
Ponnani SWING 4.9

 

Muslim league is arguably the best organized party in Kerala after CPM and it doesn’t look like league’s impressive iron grip over Malappuram will change any time soon. UDF has won 76 of 88 elections since 1982 with Muslim league single handedly winning 61 of those. More impressive are the strong margins UDF registers throughout the district from Vengara to Kottakkal to Manjeri.

 

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
IUML 61 12
INC 15 2
CPM 9 1
LDF 3 1
TOTAL 88 16

 

 

Constituencies in Malappuram are Eranad, Kondotty, Kottakkal, Malappuram, Manjeri, Mankada, Nilambur, Perinthalmanna, Ponnani, Tanur, Tavanur, Tirur, Tirurangadi, Vallikunnu, Vengara and Wandoor.

Kozhikode Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Kozhikode is another LDF leaning district in Malabar. The last three decades of election results in the district is representative of Congress party’s increasing irrelevance north of Thrissur.

 

 

 

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Vadakara LDF 11.6
Kuttiadi LDF 8.0
Nadapuram LDF 5.2
Quilandy SWING 3.9
Perambra LDF 3.6
Balusseri LDF 9.5
Elathur LDF 10.9
Kozhikode North SWING 7.7
Kozhikode South SWING 3.6
Beypore LDF 6.9
Kunnamangalam SWING 2.2
Koduvally UDF 5.5
Thiruvambadi SWING 5.5

 

7 out of 13 constituencies lean LDF with Vadakara, Kuttiadi, Balusseri, Beypore and Nadapuram voting LDF in every election since 1982. Koduvally is the only UDF leaning constituency and a Muslim league bastion. Marxist party (CPM) is the leading and winningest political party with more wins than next three parties combined.

 

Parties of Kozhikode:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
CPM 35 6
IUML 14 3
CPI 7 1
INC 7 0
CS 4 0
AIML 3 0
JDS 3 1
NCP 3 1
JAN 2 0
JD 2 0
LDF 2 1
INCA 1 0
INL 1 0
UDF 1 0
TOTAL 85 13

 

Constituencies in Kozhikode are Balusseri, Beypore, Elathur, Koduvally, Kozhikode North, Kozhikode South, Kunnamangalam, Kuttiadi, Nadapuram, Perambra, Quilandy, Thiruvambadi and Vadakara.

Kottayam Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Do not misunderstand the swing status of Kottayam, Kottayam swings right. This district is holy ground of Kerala Congress politics, with Mani and Joseph wings of Kerala Congress winning more than half the seats in every election since 1982.

 

Kottayam Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Palai UDF 18.6
Kaduthuruthy SWING 8.8
Vaikom LDF 7.3
Ettumanoor LDF 5.1
Kottayam SWING 6.8
Puthuppally UDF 12.9
Changanassery UDF 11.5
Kanjirappally SWING 7.0
Poonjar SWING 11.2

 

 

While our analysis lands 3 seats for UDF, 2 for LDF and 4 up in the air, need to note that the three UDF constituencies Palai manned by K.M.Mani, Puthupally won by Oommen Chandy and Changanassery won by intrepid C.F.Thomas are some of the safest seats for UDF in state outside of Malappuram. These three assembly constituencies have a median margin that is tough to overcome for any opponent.  Interestingly CPI has won more seats in the district than CPM partly because of Vaikom which has always favored the former party.

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
KCM 29 5
INC 12 2
CPI 8 1
CPM 7 1
KCJ 6 0
LDF 2 0
JAN 1 0
INCA 1 0
IND 1 0
KCS 1 0
SRP 1 0
TOTAL 69 9

 

Constituencies in KOTTAYAM are Changanassery, Ettumanoor, Kaduthuruthy, Kanjirappally, Kottayam, Palai, Poonjar, Puthuppally and Vaikom.

Kollam Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Kollam an erstwhile RSP and CPI bastion, leans left, and in 2016 LDF might just decimate UDF again. May 2016 also could be the end of Revolutionary Socialists as we know them, though Shibu Baby John may romp home in Chavara.

 

 

Kollam Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Karunagappally LDF 10.5
Chavara SWING 4.8
Kunnathur LDF 4.3
Kottarakkara SWING 12.0
Pathanapuram UDF 9.0
Punalur LDF 6.2
Chadayamangalam LDF 5.5
Kundara SWING 7.0
Kollam SWING 10.5
Eravipuram LDF 4.2
Chathannur LDF 4.2

 

There are 6 LDF leaning constituencies and with K.B.Ganesh Kumar now in the LDF camp, the only UDF leaning constituency has a high chance of flipping. RSP, a party that once had a pan-Travancore presence and now limited mostly to Kollam has a do or die election in hand, with it’s cadre revolting. If RSP loses bad or is limited to one MLA, it will mostly be game over for the second most winningest party in Kollam.

Kollam is a CPI and RSP stronghold with both these parties winning over 50% of seats since 1982. CPM is the up and comer and the party is clearly going after RSP votes and aims at ending Revolutionary Socialists once and for all.

 

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
CPI 23 4
RSP 19 2
CPM 12 3
INC 10 0
KCB 6 1
RSPB 3 1
KCJ 2 0
KCM 2 0
INCA 1 0
IUML 1 0
JANG 1 0
JSS 1 0
RSPS 1 0
SRP 1 0
TOTAL 83 11

 

Constituencies in Kollam are Chadayamangalam, Chathannur, Chavara, Eravipuram, Karunagappally, Kollam, Kottarakkara, Kundara, Kunnathur, Pathanapuram and Punalur.

Kasaragod Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Kasaragod leans LDF. BJP has a significant vote share in the district, it’s highest in the state, but this vote share has declined since 1982. Manjeshwaram still remains party’s best bet to open an account in 2016. Then that was the case in 1982, and every election since. Then BJP has struggled to go beyond the 20% mark.

 

3 constituencies lean LDF, while 2 lean UDF. Like many other districts in Malabar, Congress has no presence in the district and is a direct contest between CPM and Muslim league. LDF has won almost two thirds of all elections since 1982.

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Manjeshwar UDF 4.4
Kasaragod UDF 13.3
Uduma LDF 8.9
Kanhangad LDF 8.7
Trikaripur LDF 11.7

 

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
CPM 14 2
IUML 12 2
CPI 7 1
INC 2 0
TOTAL 35 5

 

Constituencies in Kasaragod are Kanhangad, Kasaragod, Manjeshwar, Trikaripur and Uduma.