Kannur Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Kannur is Communist Party Marxist’s citadel. A red fort with 8 of 11 constituencies not just leaning left, but near impossible to win for other parties. While subject to shockers like Azhikode in 2011, when CPM blew a 29 point lead, the district will side with the left. K.C.Joseph’s Irikkur and Kannur constituencies though buck the trend and side with UDF.

 

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Payyannur LDF 20.7
Kalliasseri LDF 24.0
Taliparamba LDF 12.4
Irikkur UDF 13.0
Azhikode LDF 9.1
Kannur UDF 8.8
Dharmadom LDF 6.3
Thalassery LDF 9.9
Koothuparamba LDF 6.3
Mattannur LDF 15.9
Peravoor SWING 1.7

 

CPM on it’s on has won close to 60% of all seats in Kannur since 1982, with some of it’s top leaders including Kodiyeri Balakrishnan, Pinarayi Vijayan, P.K.Sreemathi and M.V.Jayarajan winning from the district.  Constituencies in Kannur are  Azhikode, Dharmadom, Irikkur, Kalliasseri, Kannur, Koothuparamba, Mattannur, Payyannur, Peravoor, Taliparamba and Thalassery.

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
CPM 40 6
INC 16 3
CS 3 0
INCA 2 0
IUML 2 1
JDS 2 0
JAN 1 0
AIML 1 0
CMP 1 0
JANG 1 0
JD 1 0
SJD 1 1
TOTAL 71 11

 

Idukki Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Is a swing district, but LDF and UDF may keep the 3-2 split intact if P.J.Joseph contests from Thodupuzha for UDF. Roshy Augustine in Idukki and Joseph in Thodupuzha have deep moats to keep LDF at bay and the split in Kerala Congress shouldn’t affect fortunes in Idukki.

 

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Devikulam SWING 4.1
Udumbanchola LDF 4.5
Thodupuzha SWING 10.1
Idukki UDF 7.2
Peerumade SWING 4.2

 

LDF and UDF have evenly split the mountainous region of the state and things are likely to remain that way in 2016.

 

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
INC 12 0
CPM 8 2
KCM 6 2
KCJ 4 0
CPI 3 1
INCA 1 0
JD 1 0
TOTAL 35 5

 

Eranakulam Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Eranakulam is one of Indian National Congress’s last remaining advantages in the state, with strong moats in Thrikkakara, Kochi, Eranakulam and Thrippunithura. The district swings UDF and is critical for UDF to retain power in the state. The district swings right with 6 constituencies leaning UDF and 1 leaning left. 7 are up for grabs. In 2011, UDF won the district 11-3.

 

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Perumbavoor LDF 4.6
Angamaly SWING 5.2
Aluva SWING 6.5
Kalamassery SWING 5.9
Paravoor SWING 3.1
Vypeen SWING 4.2
Kochi UDF 15.6
Thrippunithura UDF 7.1
Ernakulam UDF 10.5
Thrikkakara UDF 19.0
Kunnathunad SWING 6.5
Piravom UDF 4.8
Muvattupuzha SWING 4.4
Kothamangalam UDF 5.9

 

Eranakulam did swing wildly to the left in 2006 with LDF winning 10 of 14. Except for that aberration the district has mostly been leaning towards UDF with INC winning more than double the number of seats compared to CPM. Kerala Congress has a small but significant presence in the district.

 

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
INC 44 8
CPM 19 2
CPI 6 0
IUML 6 1
KCA 5 1
KCM 5 1
KCJ 4 0
CS 3 0
INCA 3 0
JDS 2 1
NDP 1 0
TOTAL 98 14

 

 

Constituencies in Eranakulam are  Aluva, Angamaly, Ernakulam, Kalamassery, Kochi, Kothamangalam, Kunnathunad, Muvattupuzha, Paravoor, Perumbavoor, Piravom, Thrikkakara, Thrippunithura and Vypeen.

Alappuzha assembly elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Alappuzha is a classic swing district. Some of the top leaders of CPM and Congress come from the district, and the two parties are neck and neck every election since 1982. With 2 constituencies leaning LDF, and with Thomas Issac, CPM winning back heavily Congress leaning Alappuzha constituency, and JSS votes shifting to LDF, it is highly plausible the district may lean left this time around.

 

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Aroor LDF 7.4
Cherthala SWING 6.0
Alappuzha UDF 11.6
Ambalapuzha LDF 2.7
Kuttanad SWING 6.4
Haripad SWING 3.8
Kayamkulam SWING 1.7
Mavelikkara SWING 6.1
Chengannur UDF 5.0

 

INC and CPM are neck and neck in the district since 1982. JSS, RSP, Kerala Congress and NCP have spotty presence in the district. Alappuzha is the weakest district for BJP,  which won 3.4% of votes in 2011 almost a third down in 10 years since 2001 election.

 

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
INC 25 2
CPM 22 5
KCJ 5 0
CPI 4 1
NDP 3 0
INCA 2 0
JSS 2 0
RSP 2 0
CS 1 0
DIC 1 0
DLP 1 0
NCP 1 1
TOTAL 69 9

 

Constituencies in Alappuzha are Alappuzha, Ambalapuzha, Aroor, Chengannur, Cherthala, Haripad, Kayamkulam, Kuttanad and Mavelikkara.