Thrissur Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Thrissur is home to Ollur, the only true bellwether of Kerala elections. A swing district, Thrissur has 5 LDF leaning constituencies including left bastion of Kaipamangalam and one UDF fort manned by Therambil Ramakrishnan. With 7 swing constituencies, Thrissur decides how central Kerala swings. A notable constituency is Kunnamkulam characterised by wafer thin margins.

 

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Chelakkara LDF 4.5
Kunnamkulam LDF 1.8
Guruvayur LDF 9.1
Manalur SWING 5.9
Vadakkancherry SWING 7.7
Ollur SWING 4.7
Thrissur UDF 7.0
Nattika SWING 9.6
Kaipamangalam LDF 10.2
Irinjalakuda SWING 9.0
Puthukkad LDF 3.9
Chalakkudy SWING 7.2
Kodungallur SWING 6.9

 

Parties of influence in Thrissur:

 

Party power in the district is evenly split between Indian National Congress and the Communist Parties. Constituencies in Thrissur are Chalakkudy, Chelakkara, Guruvayur, Irinjalakuda, Kaipamangalam, Kodungallur, Kunnamkulam, Manalur, Nattika, Ollur, Puthukkad, Thrissur and Vadakkancherry

Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
INC 38 5
CPM 22 5
CPI 21 2
IUML 4 0
KCM 3 1
JAN 2 0
INCA 2 0
LDF 2 0
CS 1 0
JSS 1 0
NDP 1 0
TOTAL 97 13

 

Eranakulam Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Eranakulam is one of Indian National Congress’s last remaining advantages in the state, with strong moats in Thrikkakara, Kochi, Eranakulam and Thrippunithura. The district swings UDF and is critical for UDF to retain power in the state. The district swings right with 6 constituencies leaning UDF and 1 leaning left. 7 are up for grabs. In 2011, UDF won the district 11-3.

 

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Perumbavoor LDF 4.6
Angamaly SWING 5.2
Aluva SWING 6.5
Kalamassery SWING 5.9
Paravoor SWING 3.1
Vypeen SWING 4.2
Kochi UDF 15.6
Thrippunithura UDF 7.1
Ernakulam UDF 10.5
Thrikkakara UDF 19.0
Kunnathunad SWING 6.5
Piravom UDF 4.8
Muvattupuzha SWING 4.4
Kothamangalam UDF 5.9

 

Eranakulam did swing wildly to the left in 2006 with LDF winning 10 of 14. Except for that aberration the district has mostly been leaning towards UDF with INC winning more than double the number of seats compared to CPM. Kerala Congress has a small but significant presence in the district.

 

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
INC 44 8
CPM 19 2
CPI 6 0
IUML 6 1
KCA 5 1
KCM 5 1
KCJ 4 0
CS 3 0
INCA 3 0
JDS 2 1
NDP 1 0
TOTAL 98 14

 

 

Constituencies in Eranakulam are  Aluva, Angamaly, Ernakulam, Kalamassery, Kochi, Kothamangalam, Kunnathunad, Muvattupuzha, Paravoor, Perumbavoor, Piravom, Thrikkakara, Thrippunithura and Vypeen.