Wayanad Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Indian National Congress has won two thirds of all elections in Wayanad since 1982, but in recent times all three assembly constituencies in the district are in play with LDF winning Mananthavady, Sulthanbathery and Kalpetta in 2006. Median margin in Mananthavady and Kalpetta are above 10% which is above average and shows clear waves and swings.

 

Constituencies and Swing in Wayanad:

Constituencies are  Kalpetta, Mananthavady and Sulthanbathery.

Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Mananthavady SWING 10.3
Sulthanbathery SWING 4.8
Kalpetta UDF 14.4

 

Indian National Congress has won 14 of 21 seats since 1982, with socialists winning 4 and Communist Party Marxist a winning 3.

Parties of influence in Wayanad:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
INC 14 2
CPM 3 0
JAN 1 0
JANG 1 0
JDS 1 0
SJD 1 1
TOTAL 21 3

 

Palakkad Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Palakkad is an LDF bastion. Left parties have won more than two thirds of the assembly elections in Palakkad since 1982, with Communist Party Marxist alone winning more than half the elections.

A CPM stronghold, Palakkad elections has 7 LDF leaning constituencies including impenetrable red forts of Alathur, Malampuzha, Ottapalam, Shornur and Tarur. In the one UDF leaning constituency, C.Achuthan holds fort for Congress.

 

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Thrithala SWING 3.6
Pattambi SWING 4.0
Shornur LDF 11.2
Ottappalam LDF 8.2
Kongad LDF 3.1
Mannarkkad SWING 5.1
Malampuzha LDF 17.2
Palakkad SWING 4.8
Tarur LDF 11.1
Chittur UDF 7.8
Nenmara LDF 4.5
Alathur LDF 12.1

 

Parties of influence:

Palakkad is CPM’s district and it’s deep ties with working class delivers near two thirds of the seat in the left’s account . Constituencies in Palakkad are Alathur, Chittur, Kongad, Malampuzha, Mannarkkad, Nenmara, Ottappalam, Palakkad, Pattambi, Shornur, Tarur and Thrithala.

Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
CPM 39 7
INC 21 4
CPI 6 0
IUML 4 1
CS 3 0
JAN 1 0
JD 1 0
NCP 1 0
PSP 1 0
UDF 1 0
TOTAL 78 12

 

Malappuram Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Malappuram belongs to Indian Union Muslim League. There would be very few places in the country where elections are so one sided. It isn’t the fact that 14 of 16 constituencies swing UDF, but the median margin of victory and the unsurmountable lead Muslim league has in some of these places which is impressive.

 

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Kondotty UDF 23.5
Eranad UDF 9.8
Nilambur UDF 6.3
Wandoor UDF 10.9
Manjeri UDF 27.5
Perinthalmanna UDF 6.9
Mankada UDF 6.0
Malappuram UDF 36.4
Vengara UDF 38.4
Vallikunnu UDF 16.0
Tirurangadi UDF 22.3
Tanur UDF 29.3
Tirur UDF 9.8
Kottakkal UDF 31.4
Tavanur LDF 5.6
Ponnani SWING 4.9

 

Muslim league is arguably the best organized party in Kerala after CPM and it doesn’t look like league’s impressive iron grip over Malappuram will change any time soon. UDF has won 76 of 88 elections since 1982 with Muslim league single handedly winning 61 of those. More impressive are the strong margins UDF registers throughout the district from Vengara to Kottakkal to Manjeri.

 

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
IUML 61 12
INC 15 2
CPM 9 1
LDF 3 1
TOTAL 88 16

 

 

Constituencies in Malappuram are Eranad, Kondotty, Kottakkal, Malappuram, Manjeri, Mankada, Nilambur, Perinthalmanna, Ponnani, Tanur, Tavanur, Tirur, Tirurangadi, Vallikunnu, Vengara and Wandoor.

Kozhikode Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Kozhikode is another LDF leaning district in Malabar. The last three decades of election results in the district is representative of Congress party’s increasing irrelevance north of Thrissur.

 

 

 

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Vadakara LDF 11.6
Kuttiadi LDF 8.0
Nadapuram LDF 5.2
Quilandy SWING 3.9
Perambra LDF 3.6
Balusseri LDF 9.5
Elathur LDF 10.9
Kozhikode North SWING 7.7
Kozhikode South SWING 3.6
Beypore LDF 6.9
Kunnamangalam SWING 2.2
Koduvally UDF 5.5
Thiruvambadi SWING 5.5

 

7 out of 13 constituencies lean LDF with Vadakara, Kuttiadi, Balusseri, Beypore and Nadapuram voting LDF in every election since 1982. Koduvally is the only UDF leaning constituency and a Muslim league bastion. Marxist party (CPM) is the leading and winningest political party with more wins than next three parties combined.

 

Parties of Kozhikode:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
CPM 35 6
IUML 14 3
CPI 7 1
INC 7 0
CS 4 0
AIML 3 0
JDS 3 1
NCP 3 1
JAN 2 0
JD 2 0
LDF 2 1
INCA 1 0
INL 1 0
UDF 1 0
TOTAL 85 13

 

Constituencies in Kozhikode are Balusseri, Beypore, Elathur, Koduvally, Kozhikode North, Kozhikode South, Kunnamangalam, Kuttiadi, Nadapuram, Perambra, Quilandy, Thiruvambadi and Vadakara.

Kasaragod Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Kasaragod leans LDF. BJP has a significant vote share in the district, it’s highest in the state, but this vote share has declined since 1982. Manjeshwaram still remains party’s best bet to open an account in 2016. Then that was the case in 1982, and every election since. Then BJP has struggled to go beyond the 20% mark.

 

3 constituencies lean LDF, while 2 lean UDF. Like many other districts in Malabar, Congress has no presence in the district and is a direct contest between CPM and Muslim league. LDF has won almost two thirds of all elections since 1982.

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Manjeshwar UDF 4.4
Kasaragod UDF 13.3
Uduma LDF 8.9
Kanhangad LDF 8.7
Trikaripur LDF 11.7

 

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
CPM 14 2
IUML 12 2
CPI 7 1
INC 2 0
TOTAL 35 5

 

Constituencies in Kasaragod are Kanhangad, Kasaragod, Manjeshwar, Trikaripur and Uduma.