Thiruvananthapuram Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Thiruvananthapuram is a classic bellwether district with LDF and UDF virtually splitting the 98 elections since 1982 in half. Bharatiya Janata Party’s biggest bet in 2016, Trivandrum has 4 UDF leaning seats and 3 that lean LDF, including two left bastions of Attingal and Chirayinkeezhu. Half the constituencies have a habit of swinging either way and hence the district more often than not reflects the mood of the state’s electorate.

 

Constituencies and Swing:

 

Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Varkala SWING 4.0
Attingal LDF 8.9
Chirayinkeezhu LDF 11.0
Nedumangad SWING 3.7
Vamanapuram LDF 2.7
Kazhakoottam UDF 2.0
Vattiyoorkavu UDF 12.1
Thiruvananthapuram SWING 8.8
Nemom SWING 5.5
Aruvikkara UDF 5.3
Parassala SWING 4.9
Kattakkada UDF 7.7
Kovalam SWING 5.8
Neyyattinkara SWING 6.0

 

Parties of influence Trivandrum:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
INC 37 8
CPM 30 4
CPI 11 1
JAN 2 0
CMP 2 0
CS 2 0
INCA 2 0
IND 2 0
JDS 2 1
KCJ 2 0
RSP 2 0
DSP 1 0
IUML 1 0
JD 1 0
LD 1 0
TOTAL 98 14

Constituencies in Thiruvananthapuram are Aruvikkara, Attingal, Chirayinkeezhu, Kattakkada, Kazhakoottam, Kovalam, Nedumangad, Nemom, Neyyattinkara, Parassala and Thiruvananthapuram.

Pathanamthitta Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Pathanamthitta leans right and traditionally favors UDF. Though Raju Abraham and Mathew T. Thomas buck the trend in Ranni and Thiruvalla, UDF and Kerala Congress politics holds sway in the district. Aranmula is BJP’s only interest in the district.

 

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Thiruvalla LDF 8.5
Ranni LDF 5.1
Aranmula UDF 6.6
Konni UDF 2.7
Adoor UDF 6.6

 

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
INC 17 2
CPM 13 1
KCM 5 0
KCJ 3 0
UDF 3 0
CS 2 0
JDS 2 1
JSS 2 0
JAN 1 0
CPI 1 1
JANG 1 0
KCB 1 0
NDP 1 0
NDPP 1 0
TOTAL 53 5

Constituencies in Pathanamthitta are Adoor, Aranmula, Konni, Ranni and Thiruvalla.

Kottayam Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Do not misunderstand the swing status of Kottayam, Kottayam swings right. This district is holy ground of Kerala Congress politics, with Mani and Joseph wings of Kerala Congress winning more than half the seats in every election since 1982.

 

Kottayam Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Palai UDF 18.6
Kaduthuruthy SWING 8.8
Vaikom LDF 7.3
Ettumanoor LDF 5.1
Kottayam SWING 6.8
Puthuppally UDF 12.9
Changanassery UDF 11.5
Kanjirappally SWING 7.0
Poonjar SWING 11.2

 

 

While our analysis lands 3 seats for UDF, 2 for LDF and 4 up in the air, need to note that the three UDF constituencies Palai manned by K.M.Mani, Puthupally won by Oommen Chandy and Changanassery won by intrepid C.F.Thomas are some of the safest seats for UDF in state outside of Malappuram. These three assembly constituencies have a median margin that is tough to overcome for any opponent.  Interestingly CPI has won more seats in the district than CPM partly because of Vaikom which has always favored the former party.

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
KCM 29 5
INC 12 2
CPI 8 1
CPM 7 1
KCJ 6 0
LDF 2 0
JAN 1 0
INCA 1 0
IND 1 0
KCS 1 0
SRP 1 0
TOTAL 69 9

 

Constituencies in KOTTAYAM are Changanassery, Ettumanoor, Kaduthuruthy, Kanjirappally, Kottayam, Palai, Poonjar, Puthuppally and Vaikom.

Kollam Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Kollam an erstwhile RSP and CPI bastion, leans left, and in 2016 LDF might just decimate UDF again. May 2016 also could be the end of Revolutionary Socialists as we know them, though Shibu Baby John may romp home in Chavara.

 

 

Kollam Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Karunagappally LDF 10.5
Chavara SWING 4.8
Kunnathur LDF 4.3
Kottarakkara SWING 12.0
Pathanapuram UDF 9.0
Punalur LDF 6.2
Chadayamangalam LDF 5.5
Kundara SWING 7.0
Kollam SWING 10.5
Eravipuram LDF 4.2
Chathannur LDF 4.2

 

There are 6 LDF leaning constituencies and with K.B.Ganesh Kumar now in the LDF camp, the only UDF leaning constituency has a high chance of flipping. RSP, a party that once had a pan-Travancore presence and now limited mostly to Kollam has a do or die election in hand, with it’s cadre revolting. If RSP loses bad or is limited to one MLA, it will mostly be game over for the second most winningest party in Kollam.

Kollam is a CPI and RSP stronghold with both these parties winning over 50% of seats since 1982. CPM is the up and comer and the party is clearly going after RSP votes and aims at ending Revolutionary Socialists once and for all.

 

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
CPI 23 4
RSP 19 2
CPM 12 3
INC 10 0
KCB 6 1
RSPB 3 1
KCJ 2 0
KCM 2 0
INCA 1 0
IUML 1 0
JANG 1 0
JSS 1 0
RSPS 1 0
SRP 1 0
TOTAL 83 11

 

Constituencies in Kollam are Chadayamangalam, Chathannur, Chavara, Eravipuram, Karunagappally, Kollam, Kottarakkara, Kundara, Kunnathur, Pathanapuram and Punalur.

Idukki Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Is a swing district, but LDF and UDF may keep the 3-2 split intact if P.J.Joseph contests from Thodupuzha for UDF. Roshy Augustine in Idukki and Joseph in Thodupuzha have deep moats to keep LDF at bay and the split in Kerala Congress shouldn’t affect fortunes in Idukki.

 

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Devikulam SWING 4.1
Udumbanchola LDF 4.5
Thodupuzha SWING 10.1
Idukki UDF 7.2
Peerumade SWING 4.2

 

LDF and UDF have evenly split the mountainous region of the state and things are likely to remain that way in 2016.

 

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
INC 12 0
CPM 8 2
KCM 6 2
KCJ 4 0
CPI 3 1
INCA 1 0
JD 1 0
TOTAL 35 5