Thiruvananthapuram is a classic bellwether district with LDF and UDF virtually splitting the 98 elections since 1982 in half. Bharatiya Janata Party’s biggest bet in 2016, Trivandrum has 4 UDF leaning seats and 3 that lean LDF, including two left bastions of Attingal and Chirayinkeezhu. Half the constituencies have a habit of swinging either way and hence the district more often than not reflects the mood of the state’s electorate.
Is a swing district, but LDF and UDF may keep the 3-2 split intact if P.J.Joseph contests from Thodupuzha for UDF. Roshy Augustine in Idukki and Joseph in Thodupuzha have deep moats to keep LDF at bay and the split in Kerala Congress shouldn't affect fortunes in Idukki.
Alappuzha is a classic swing district. Some of the top leaders of CPM and Congress come from the district, and the two parties are neck and neck every election since 1982. With 2 constituencies leaning LDF, and with Thomas Issac, CPM winning back heavily Congress leaning Alappuzha constituency, and JSS votes shifting to LDF, it is highly plausible the district may lean left this time around.