Kollam Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Kollam an erstwhile RSP and CPI bastion, leans left, and in 2016 LDF might just decimate UDF again. May 2016 also could be the end of Revolutionary Socialists as we know them, though Shibu Baby John may romp home in Chavara.

 

 

Kollam Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Karunagappally LDF 10.5
Chavara SWING 4.8
Kunnathur LDF 4.3
Kottarakkara SWING 12.0
Pathanapuram UDF 9.0
Punalur LDF 6.2
Chadayamangalam LDF 5.5
Kundara SWING 7.0
Kollam SWING 10.5
Eravipuram LDF 4.2
Chathannur LDF 4.2

 

There are 6 LDF leaning constituencies and with K.B.Ganesh Kumar now in the LDF camp, the only UDF leaning constituency has a high chance of flipping. RSP, a party that once had a pan-Travancore presence and now limited mostly to Kollam has a do or die election in hand, with it’s cadre revolting. If RSP loses bad or is limited to one MLA, it will mostly be game over for the second most winningest party in Kollam.

Kollam is a CPI and RSP stronghold with both these parties winning over 50% of seats since 1982. CPM is the up and comer and the party is clearly going after RSP votes and aims at ending Revolutionary Socialists once and for all.

 

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
CPI 23 4
RSP 19 2
CPM 12 3
INC 10 0
KCB 6 1
RSPB 3 1
KCJ 2 0
KCM 2 0
INCA 1 0
IUML 1 0
JANG 1 0
JSS 1 0
RSPS 1 0
SRP 1 0
TOTAL 83 11

 

Constituencies in Kollam are Chadayamangalam, Chathannur, Chavara, Eravipuram, Karunagappally, Kollam, Kottarakkara, Kundara, Kunnathur, Pathanapuram and Punalur.