Wayanad Assembly Elections

March 21st, 2016|0 Comments

Indian National Congress has won two thirds of all elections in Wayanad since 1982, but in recent times all three assembly constituencies in the district are in play with LDF winning Mananthavady, Sulthanbathery and Kalpetta in 2006. Median margin in Mananthavady and Kalpetta are above 10% which is above average and shows clear waves and swings.

Palakkad Assembly Elections

March 21st, 2016|0 Comments

Palakkad is CPM's district and it's deep ties with working class delivers near two thirds of the seat in the left's account . Constituencies in Palakkad are Alathur, Chittur, Kongad, Malampuzha, Mannarkkad, Nenmara, Ottappalam, Palakkad, Pattambi, Shornur, Tarur and Thrithala.

Malappuram Assembly Elections

March 21st, 2016|0 Comments

Malappuram belongs to Indian Union Muslim League. There would be very few places in the country where elections are so one sided. It isn’t the fact that 14 of 16 constituencies swing UDF, but the median margin of victory and the unsurmountable lead Muslim league has in some of these places which is impressive.

Kozhikode Assembly Elections

March 21st, 2016|0 Comments

Kozhikode is another LDF leaning district in Malabar. The last three decades of election results in the district is representative of Congress party’s increasing irrelevance north of Thrissur.

Thiruvananthapuram Assembly Elections

March 21st, 2016|0 Comments

Thiruvananthapuram is a classic bellwether district with LDF and UDF virtually splitting the 98 elections since 1982 in half. Bharatiya Janata Party’s biggest bet in 2016, Trivandrum has 4 UDF leaning seats and 3 that lean LDF, including two left bastions of Attingal and Chirayinkeezhu. Half the constituencies have a habit of swinging either way and hence the district more often than not reflects the mood of the state’s electorate.

Pathanamthitta Assembly Elections

March 21st, 2016|0 Comments

Pathanamthitta leans right and traditionally favors UDF. Though Raju Abraham and Mathew T. Thomas buck the trend in Ranni and Thiruvalla, UDF and Kerala Congress politics holds sway in the district. Aranmula is BJP’s only interest in the district.

Kottayam Assembly Elections

March 21st, 2016|0 Comments

Do not misunderstand the swing status of Kottayam, Kottayam swings right. This district is holy ground of Kerala Congress politics, with Mani and Joseph wings of Kerala Congress winning more than half the seats in every election since 1982.

Kollam Assembly Elections

March 21st, 2016|0 Comments

Kollam an erstwhile RSP and CPI bastion, leans left, and in 2016 LDF might just decimate UDF again. May 2016 also could be the end of Revolutionary Socialists as we know them, though Shibu Baby John may romp home in Chavara.

Thrissur Assembly Elections

March 21st, 2016|0 Comments

Thrissur is home to Ollur, the only true bellwether of Kerala elections. A swing district, Thrissur has 5 LDF leaning constituencies including left bastion of Kaipamangalam and one UDF fort manned by Therambil Ramakrishnan. With 7 swing constituencies, Thrissur decides how central Kerala swings. A notable constituency is Kunnamkulam characterised by wafer thin margins.

Eranakulam Assembly Elections

March 21st, 2016|0 Comments

Eranakulam is one of Indian National Congress’s last remaining advantages in the state, with strong moats in Thrikkakara, Kochi, Eranakulam and Thrippunithura. The district swings UDF and is critical for UDF to retain power in the state. The district swings right with 6 constituencies leaning UDF and 1 leaning left. 7 are up for grabs. In 2011, UDF won the district 11-3.

Winners and losers: Kerala elections

April 3rd, 2016|0 Comments

Interestingly the party that has contested most number of seats in Kerala in last seven elections has not won even a single seat. That distinction goes to Bharatiya Janata Party which has contested a whopping 850 seats in past 35 years and lost every single one of them.

Bellwether of Kerala Elections

March 19th, 2016|0 Comments

Ever wondered which constituencies reflect the mood of the state. Ollur in Thrissur has predicted every election since 1982, sending MLAs to Trivandrum who were always part of the ruling alliance. Only constituency to do so.

The importance of being Ollur

March 19th, 2016|0 Comments

Ollur is the Vigo county of recent elections to Kerala assembly. Ollur in Thrissur district has predicted the man in Cliff House 100% of the time. The only constituency in the state to do this.