Ever wondered which constituencies reflect the mood of the state. Ollur in Thrissur has predicted every election since 1982, sending MLAs to Trivandrum who were always part of the ruling alliance. Only constituency to do so. Thiruvananthapuram and Kottayam lead the way as truly bellwether districts, Thiruvananthapuram because of it’s high political awareness and Kottayam because of it’s flexible Kerala Congress parties which usually switch alliances to stay in power.
We have looked at bellwether status from two fronts – ability to pick the correct winner in each of the 7 elections and ability to ride the 4 waves that occurred in the past 35 odd years of electoral politics. Around 13 constituencies have rode the wave and picked the winner with 90% or higher accuracy. 30 places have a 80% or higher accuracy of siding with the winner and riding a wave when they see one. Below chart shows constituencies and their United Front vs Left Front leaning.
|Best Predictors of State|
Districts data show no surprises, Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam decide which party comes to power, with unique ability to swing and sway based on the mood of the state, housing one 3rd of the places that have predicted winning alliance with a 90% accuracy. Malabar continues to try and make sense of what’s going on in rest of the state, without much success though.
And so who’s not so good at picking the right alliance. The not so bellwether brethren of Kerala assembly constituencies.
|Not so Bellwether|