Pathanamthitta Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Pathanamthitta leans right and traditionally favors UDF. Though Raju Abraham and Mathew T. Thomas buck the trend in Ranni and Thiruvalla, UDF and Kerala Congress politics holds sway in the district. Aranmula is BJP’s only interest in the district.

 

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Thiruvalla LDF 8.5
Ranni LDF 5.1
Aranmula UDF 6.6
Konni UDF 2.7
Adoor UDF 6.6

 

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
INC 17 2
CPM 13 1
KCM 5 0
KCJ 3 0
UDF 3 0
CS 2 0
JDS 2 1
JSS 2 0
JAN 1 0
CPI 1 1
JANG 1 0
KCB 1 0
NDP 1 0
NDPP 1 0
TOTAL 53 5

Constituencies in Pathanamthitta are Adoor, Aranmula, Konni, Ranni and Thiruvalla.

Palakkad Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Palakkad is an LDF bastion. Left parties have won more than two thirds of the assembly elections in Palakkad since 1982, with Communist Party Marxist alone winning more than half the elections.

A CPM stronghold, Palakkad elections has 7 LDF leaning constituencies including impenetrable red forts of Alathur, Malampuzha, Ottapalam, Shornur and Tarur. In the one UDF leaning constituency, C.Achuthan holds fort for Congress.

 

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Thrithala SWING 3.6
Pattambi SWING 4.0
Shornur LDF 11.2
Ottappalam LDF 8.2
Kongad LDF 3.1
Mannarkkad SWING 5.1
Malampuzha LDF 17.2
Palakkad SWING 4.8
Tarur LDF 11.1
Chittur UDF 7.8
Nenmara LDF 4.5
Alathur LDF 12.1

 

Parties of influence:

Palakkad is CPM’s district and it’s deep ties with working class delivers near two thirds of the seat in the left’s account . Constituencies in Palakkad are Alathur, Chittur, Kongad, Malampuzha, Mannarkkad, Nenmara, Ottappalam, Palakkad, Pattambi, Shornur, Tarur and Thrithala.

Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
CPM 39 7
INC 21 4
CPI 6 0
IUML 4 1
CS 3 0
JAN 1 0
JD 1 0
NCP 1 0
PSP 1 0
UDF 1 0
TOTAL 78 12

 

Malappuram Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Malappuram belongs to Indian Union Muslim League. There would be very few places in the country where elections are so one sided. It isn’t the fact that 14 of 16 constituencies swing UDF, but the median margin of victory and the unsurmountable lead Muslim league has in some of these places which is impressive.

 

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Kondotty UDF 23.5
Eranad UDF 9.8
Nilambur UDF 6.3
Wandoor UDF 10.9
Manjeri UDF 27.5
Perinthalmanna UDF 6.9
Mankada UDF 6.0
Malappuram UDF 36.4
Vengara UDF 38.4
Vallikunnu UDF 16.0
Tirurangadi UDF 22.3
Tanur UDF 29.3
Tirur UDF 9.8
Kottakkal UDF 31.4
Tavanur LDF 5.6
Ponnani SWING 4.9

 

Muslim league is arguably the best organized party in Kerala after CPM and it doesn’t look like league’s impressive iron grip over Malappuram will change any time soon. UDF has won 76 of 88 elections since 1982 with Muslim league single handedly winning 61 of those. More impressive are the strong margins UDF registers throughout the district from Vengara to Kottakkal to Manjeri.

 

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
IUML 61 12
INC 15 2
CPM 9 1
LDF 3 1
TOTAL 88 16

 

 

Constituencies in Malappuram are Eranad, Kondotty, Kottakkal, Malappuram, Manjeri, Mankada, Nilambur, Perinthalmanna, Ponnani, Tanur, Tavanur, Tirur, Tirurangadi, Vallikunnu, Vengara and Wandoor.

Kozhikode Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Kozhikode is another LDF leaning district in Malabar. The last three decades of election results in the district is representative of Congress party’s increasing irrelevance north of Thrissur.

 

 

 

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Vadakara LDF 11.6
Kuttiadi LDF 8.0
Nadapuram LDF 5.2
Quilandy SWING 3.9
Perambra LDF 3.6
Balusseri LDF 9.5
Elathur LDF 10.9
Kozhikode North SWING 7.7
Kozhikode South SWING 3.6
Beypore LDF 6.9
Kunnamangalam SWING 2.2
Koduvally UDF 5.5
Thiruvambadi SWING 5.5

 

7 out of 13 constituencies lean LDF with Vadakara, Kuttiadi, Balusseri, Beypore and Nadapuram voting LDF in every election since 1982. Koduvally is the only UDF leaning constituency and a Muslim league bastion. Marxist party (CPM) is the leading and winningest political party with more wins than next three parties combined.

 

Parties of Kozhikode:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
CPM 35 6
IUML 14 3
CPI 7 1
INC 7 0
CS 4 0
AIML 3 0
JDS 3 1
NCP 3 1
JAN 2 0
JD 2 0
LDF 2 1
INCA 1 0
INL 1 0
UDF 1 0
TOTAL 85 13

 

Constituencies in Kozhikode are Balusseri, Beypore, Elathur, Koduvally, Kozhikode North, Kozhikode South, Kunnamangalam, Kuttiadi, Nadapuram, Perambra, Quilandy, Thiruvambadi and Vadakara.

Kottayam Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Do not misunderstand the swing status of Kottayam, Kottayam swings right. This district is holy ground of Kerala Congress politics, with Mani and Joseph wings of Kerala Congress winning more than half the seats in every election since 1982.

 

Kottayam Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Palai UDF 18.6
Kaduthuruthy SWING 8.8
Vaikom LDF 7.3
Ettumanoor LDF 5.1
Kottayam SWING 6.8
Puthuppally UDF 12.9
Changanassery UDF 11.5
Kanjirappally SWING 7.0
Poonjar SWING 11.2

 

 

While our analysis lands 3 seats for UDF, 2 for LDF and 4 up in the air, need to note that the three UDF constituencies Palai manned by K.M.Mani, Puthupally won by Oommen Chandy and Changanassery won by intrepid C.F.Thomas are some of the safest seats for UDF in state outside of Malappuram. These three assembly constituencies have a median margin that is tough to overcome for any opponent.  Interestingly CPI has won more seats in the district than CPM partly because of Vaikom which has always favored the former party.

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
KCM 29 5
INC 12 2
CPI 8 1
CPM 7 1
KCJ 6 0
LDF 2 0
JAN 1 0
INCA 1 0
IND 1 0
KCS 1 0
SRP 1 0
TOTAL 69 9

 

Constituencies in KOTTAYAM are Changanassery, Ettumanoor, Kaduthuruthy, Kanjirappally, Kottayam, Palai, Poonjar, Puthuppally and Vaikom.