Kollam Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Kollam an erstwhile RSP and CPI bastion, leans left, and in 2016 LDF might just decimate UDF again. May 2016 also could be the end of Revolutionary Socialists as we know them, though Shibu Baby John may romp home in Chavara.

 

 

Kollam Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Karunagappally LDF 10.5
Chavara SWING 4.8
Kunnathur LDF 4.3
Kottarakkara SWING 12.0
Pathanapuram UDF 9.0
Punalur LDF 6.2
Chadayamangalam LDF 5.5
Kundara SWING 7.0
Kollam SWING 10.5
Eravipuram LDF 4.2
Chathannur LDF 4.2

 

There are 6 LDF leaning constituencies and with K.B.Ganesh Kumar now in the LDF camp, the only UDF leaning constituency has a high chance of flipping. RSP, a party that once had a pan-Travancore presence and now limited mostly to Kollam has a do or die election in hand, with it’s cadre revolting. If RSP loses bad or is limited to one MLA, it will mostly be game over for the second most winningest party in Kollam.

Kollam is a CPI and RSP stronghold with both these parties winning over 50% of seats since 1982. CPM is the up and comer and the party is clearly going after RSP votes and aims at ending Revolutionary Socialists once and for all.

 

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
CPI 23 4
RSP 19 2
CPM 12 3
INC 10 0
KCB 6 1
RSPB 3 1
KCJ 2 0
KCM 2 0
INCA 1 0
IUML 1 0
JANG 1 0
JSS 1 0
RSPS 1 0
SRP 1 0
TOTAL 83 11

 

Constituencies in Kollam are Chadayamangalam, Chathannur, Chavara, Eravipuram, Karunagappally, Kollam, Kottarakkara, Kundara, Kunnathur, Pathanapuram and Punalur.

Kasaragod Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Kasaragod leans LDF. BJP has a significant vote share in the district, it’s highest in the state, but this vote share has declined since 1982. Manjeshwaram still remains party’s best bet to open an account in 2016. Then that was the case in 1982, and every election since. Then BJP has struggled to go beyond the 20% mark.

 

3 constituencies lean LDF, while 2 lean UDF. Like many other districts in Malabar, Congress has no presence in the district and is a direct contest between CPM and Muslim league. LDF has won almost two thirds of all elections since 1982.

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Manjeshwar UDF 4.4
Kasaragod UDF 13.3
Uduma LDF 8.9
Kanhangad LDF 8.7
Trikaripur LDF 11.7

 

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
CPM 14 2
IUML 12 2
CPI 7 1
INC 2 0
TOTAL 35 5

 

Constituencies in Kasaragod are Kanhangad, Kasaragod, Manjeshwar, Trikaripur and Uduma.

Kannur Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Kannur is Communist Party Marxist’s citadel. A red fort with 8 of 11 constituencies not just leaning left, but near impossible to win for other parties. While subject to shockers like Azhikode in 2011, when CPM blew a 29 point lead, the district will side with the left. K.C.Joseph’s Irikkur and Kannur constituencies though buck the trend and side with UDF.

 

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Payyannur LDF 20.7
Kalliasseri LDF 24.0
Taliparamba LDF 12.4
Irikkur UDF 13.0
Azhikode LDF 9.1
Kannur UDF 8.8
Dharmadom LDF 6.3
Thalassery LDF 9.9
Koothuparamba LDF 6.3
Mattannur LDF 15.9
Peravoor SWING 1.7

 

CPM on it’s on has won close to 60% of all seats in Kannur since 1982, with some of it’s top leaders including Kodiyeri Balakrishnan, Pinarayi Vijayan, P.K.Sreemathi and M.V.Jayarajan winning from the district.  Constituencies in Kannur are  Azhikode, Dharmadom, Irikkur, Kalliasseri, Kannur, Koothuparamba, Mattannur, Payyannur, Peravoor, Taliparamba and Thalassery.

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
CPM 40 6
INC 16 3
CS 3 0
INCA 2 0
IUML 2 1
JDS 2 0
JAN 1 0
AIML 1 0
CMP 1 0
JANG 1 0
JD 1 0
SJD 1 1
TOTAL 71 11

 

Idukki Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Is a swing district, but LDF and UDF may keep the 3-2 split intact if P.J.Joseph contests from Thodupuzha for UDF. Roshy Augustine in Idukki and Joseph in Thodupuzha have deep moats to keep LDF at bay and the split in Kerala Congress shouldn’t affect fortunes in Idukki.

 

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Devikulam SWING 4.1
Udumbanchola LDF 4.5
Thodupuzha SWING 10.1
Idukki UDF 7.2
Peerumade SWING 4.2

 

LDF and UDF have evenly split the mountainous region of the state and things are likely to remain that way in 2016.

 

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
INC 12 0
CPM 8 2
KCM 6 2
KCJ 4 0
CPI 3 1
INCA 1 0
JD 1 0
TOTAL 35 5

 

Eranakulam Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Eranakulam is one of Indian National Congress’s last remaining advantages in the state, with strong moats in Thrikkakara, Kochi, Eranakulam and Thrippunithura. The district swings UDF and is critical for UDF to retain power in the state. The district swings right with 6 constituencies leaning UDF and 1 leaning left. 7 are up for grabs. In 2011, UDF won the district 11-3.

 

Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Perumbavoor LDF 4.6
Angamaly SWING 5.2
Aluva SWING 6.5
Kalamassery SWING 5.9
Paravoor SWING 3.1
Vypeen SWING 4.2
Kochi UDF 15.6
Thrippunithura UDF 7.1
Ernakulam UDF 10.5
Thrikkakara UDF 19.0
Kunnathunad SWING 6.5
Piravom UDF 4.8
Muvattupuzha SWING 4.4
Kothamangalam UDF 5.9

 

Eranakulam did swing wildly to the left in 2006 with LDF winning 10 of 14. Except for that aberration the district has mostly been leaning towards UDF with INC winning more than double the number of seats compared to CPM. Kerala Congress has a small but significant presence in the district.

 

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
INC 44 8
CPM 19 2
CPI 6 0
IUML 6 1
KCA 5 1
KCM 5 1
KCJ 4 0
CS 3 0
INCA 3 0
JDS 2 1
NDP 1 0
TOTAL 98 14

 

 

Constituencies in Eranakulam are  Aluva, Angamaly, Ernakulam, Kalamassery, Kochi, Kothamangalam, Kunnathunad, Muvattupuzha, Paravoor, Perumbavoor, Piravom, Thrikkakara, Thrippunithura and Vypeen.