Kollam Assembly Elections

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING

 

Summary:

Kollam an erstwhile RSP and CPI bastion, leans left, and in 2016 LDF might just decimate UDF again. May 2016 also could be the end of Revolutionary Socialists as we know them, though Shibu Baby John may romp home in Chavara.

 

 

Kollam Constituencies and Swing:
Trends and Margins
Const. Swing Margin
Karunagappally LDF 10.5
Chavara SWING 4.8
Kunnathur LDF 4.3
Kottarakkara SWING 12.0
Pathanapuram UDF 9.0
Punalur LDF 6.2
Chadayamangalam LDF 5.5
Kundara SWING 7.0
Kollam SWING 10.5
Eravipuram LDF 4.2
Chathannur LDF 4.2

 

There are 6 LDF leaning constituencies and with K.B.Ganesh Kumar now in the LDF camp, the only UDF leaning constituency has a high chance of flipping. RSP, a party that once had a pan-Travancore presence and now limited mostly to Kollam has a do or die election in hand, with it’s cadre revolting. If RSP loses bad or is limited to one MLA, it will mostly be game over for the second most winningest party in Kollam.

Kollam is a CPI and RSP stronghold with both these parties winning over 50% of seats since 1982. CPM is the up and comer and the party is clearly going after RSP votes and aims at ending Revolutionary Socialists once and for all.

 

Parties of influence:
Party Wins
Party Since 1982 2011
CPI 23 4
RSP 19 2
CPM 12 3
INC 10 0
KCB 6 1
RSPB 3 1
KCJ 2 0
KCM 2 0
INCA 1 0
IUML 1 0
JANG 1 0
JSS 1 0
RSPS 1 0
SRP 1 0
TOTAL 83 11

 

Constituencies in Kollam are Chadayamangalam, Chathannur, Chavara, Eravipuram, Karunagappally, Kollam, Kottarakkara, Kundara, Kunnathur, Pathanapuram and Punalur.

CHAVARA

Swing Meter:
LDF UDF SWING
Summary:

Chavara is a swing constituency. In 2011,Shibu Baby John of Revolutionary Socialist Party- Bolshevik defeated N. K. Premachandran of Revolutionary Socialist Party by a margin of 6061 votes.


Percentage votes since 1982:


YEAR LDF UDF BJP
percentage votes by alliance
1982 50 49 1
1987 52 42 3
1991 50 46 2
1996 52 44 3
2001 43 54 2
2006 49 1 2
2011 46 51 2


Winning Party votes since 1982:


YEAR WIN % 2ND
percentage margin of victory
1982 RSP 1 INC
1987 RSP 10 INC
1991 RSP 4 INC
1996 RSP 8 INC
2001 RSPB 11 RSP
2006 RSP 2 IND
2011 RSPB 5 RSP


Chavara 1982 election results:


Candidate Party % Votes
percentage votes by candidate
Baby John RSP 50
K. Suresh Babu INC 49
A. Antony BJP 1


Chavara 1987 election results:


Candidate Party % Votes
percentage votes by candidate
Baby John RSP 52
K. Suresh Babu INC 42
K. Madanan BJP 3


Chavara 1991 election results:


Candidate Party % Votes
percentage votes by candidate
Baby John RSP 50
Prathapavarma Thampan INC 46
S. Nalinakshan BJP 2


Chavara 1996 election results:


Candidate Party % Votes
percentage votes by candidate
Baby John RSP 52
K. Karunakaran Pillai INC 44
B. Sunil Kumar BJP 3


Chavara 2001 election results:


Candidate Party % Votes
percentage votes by candidate
Shibu Baby John RSPB 54
V. P. Ramakrishna Pillai RSP 43
G. Hari BJP 2


Chavara 2006 election results:


Candidate Party % Votes
percentage votes by candidate
N. K. Premachandran RSP 49
Shibu Baby John IND 47
B. Udayakumar BJP 2


Chavara 2011 election results:


Candidate Party % Votes
percentage votes by candidate
Shibu Baby John RSPB 51
N. K. Premachandran RSP 46
Nalini Sankaramankalam BJP 2